Something's Fishy in Alaska (Hint: It's Not the Fish)

Republican candidates in Alaska significantly outperformed the polls on Tuesday. Despite leading by 7-22% in the polls leading up to the election, Democratic candidate for Senate, Mark Begich, is narrowly behind incumbent Republican Senator and convicted felon, Ted Stevens, as Alaska begins counting absentee and provisional ballots. Polls had McCain/Palin winning by about 14%; they won by 25%. Maybe Republicans in Alaska were just more motivated to vote than anyone anticipated. But . . .

According to official totals, voter turnout in Alaska was down 14% as compared to 2004. Anyone think that makes sense? The Governor of Alaska is running for Vice-President, and Alaskans decide they're no longer interested in voting? Nate Silver has a thoughtful and thorough post on the possible explanations. Check it out.

Update (4:00pm): Just to drive the point home: Voter turnout was up 10.8% nationwide as compared to 2004. But, again, Alaskans decided not to show up.